Monday, September 8, 2008

Oil - relationship breaking down?

This graph shows how oil has moved more in step with the market over the last few days. Notice how today, oil formed a bit of a double bottom right before the Nazdaq did the same. Normally, oil has an inverse relationship with the market. I can explain this in a few different ways. One explanation could be that the employment report last week and the Fannie and Freddie bailout (not a backstop any more) far outweighs the daily fluctuations of oil. Another explanation is that the sentiment about oil prices could be changing. Normally, lower oil means the consumer will have more discretionary income which is a postive for an economy based largely on consumer spending. But the biggest fear lately is that we are going to experience a worldwide recession, not just a U.S. slowdown. So lower oil might now remind traders of slowing global demand, which will have more impact in the long term. The third explanation is that all of this is just a coincidence. I'll be watching this over the next week to see if this new relationship continues.

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