Thursday, October 9, 2008

Unprecedented Fall


I've never seen anything like this. I thought we could see 9000 or 8000 in the Dow, but I thought it would take several months to get there, not two weeks. We sliced through 9000 today like it was butter. I was actually thinking about moving a small amount of money into the market in my 401K this morning but then I remembered the saying about falling knifes. We've never witnessed a massive deleveraging like this, so there is no case study. Being invested in the market long term also affects my market neutrality. It still seems like we should get one last massive bear market rally but I won't bet any money on that. I'm starting to wonder what trading is going to look like one or two years in the future. I'm guessing low volume, low volatility sideways action for several years as the number of players decreases. Bush is going to give a speech tomorrow to "Assure the Nation". It's like a CEO denying their company is bankrupt. The markets will probably sell off when he starts speaking. Sorry to be so negative...

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