Thursday, August 21, 2008

Wednesday trade - RIO


Wednesday was utterly choppy, and today is looking even choppier. I've adapted by focusing more on sectors and being quicker to take profits and/or tighten my stops. Oil made a big move down in the morning after the inventory report at 10:35. Then it started basing and turning around. When oil is going up, I decide whether to short a transportation stock or bank, or to go long in an energy stock. I found a nice base and break setup in RIO. I liked how it carved out a shallow cup before the breakout point of 26.62 and I thought that oil was likely to continue rising until it neared the morning's ORL. RIO broke out so fast I exited with a 1.93R profit after being in the trade for only 14 minutes. This isn't my normal style (really more of a scalp) but I don't trust this market, so I'll take what I can get.

When I'm trading at my best, I weigh several factors before entering and exiting a trade. My reasons for exiting this trade were as follows:

1. Oil nearing ORL, likely to slow (RIO was moving in sympathy with oil).
2. Time approaching 2:30, when open outcry crude oil trading ceases (less volatility).
3. RIO approaching upper trendline and psychological resistance at 27.
4. Choppy, low volume conditions.
5. Order flow was slowing, only one or two prints at 26.91.

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